The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index dropped -12.81 points today, hitting a 10 year low.
Contrarian investors must be salivating today as oil scraps at the bottom with an 5 year low. Morgan Stanely said that oversupply would most likely peak next year with OPEC deciding not to cut output.
China’s exports rose by 4.7{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}, down from 10.6{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} in October. While the US economy is doing well, China’s economic growth slowed to 7.3{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} in the last quarter, the lowest in 5 years. We are beginning to see history repeat itself on the venture – after 4 years of dropping, it would not be unusual to expect a turnaround in the shortterm. It might go sideways a bit like back in 1991-92 or 2000-2003, however a pattern emerges – take a look back from 1990 to now on the index.
1991-1992> sideways
93> up
94> down
95-96> up
96-99> down
2000> up
00-03> sideways
03-06> up
06-08> down
08-10> up
10-14> down
See the pattern? There is almost a clear back and forth that happens, and following the history, it looks like we are soon to see an uptrend.