Opportunity on the Rebound
Opportunity on the Rebound
– Momentum Public Relations –
It is tempting to spin a number of mining clichés when referring to the somewhat surprising rise in the TSX-Venture exchange. Are savvy investors in these stocks “sitting on a gold mine”? Could the truth behind the recent strength of the embattled junior exchange be “buried somewhere”? Enough with the clichés.
At this point many investors are, at the very least, sitting up and taking notice. It would be easy to dismiss the recent rebound of the Venture exchange if it could be explained by a general rise in worldwide markets or a discernible spike in commodity pricing. However the upward trend in the Venture index is occurring at a time when the Dow and the TSX have not shown sustained gains and when overall commodity pricing is volatile at best.
The upward momentum at the Venture exchange is a relatively recent phenomenon. In the past few years the index, weighted to some degree by under-performing mining and resource companies, has declined precipitously moving from around 2200 down to lows that breached the 480 mark. The index has risen from the 490 range up to levels of 530 and higher in the last 30 days. This would appear to defy conventional wisdom.
Throughout 2015, there were a number of market observers predicting everything from further steep declines to a complete collapse of the exchange.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/tsx-venture-index-sinks-below-500-as-long-march-downwards-shows-no-signs-of-letting-up?__lsa=4d9c-332c
The recent strength of the Venture exchange could be dismissed as a mild correction; undervalued markets frequently adjust to respond to a perceived over-correction. There is no doubt that this resource-heavy exchange has suffered from investor fatigue. It has always been a place to take risks. However, the appetite of high-risk investors became much less robust post-2008.
Overall, most experts are cautiously optimistic about the Venture’s future because everyone recognizes that the resource sector always bounces back. The recent shift in fortune may signal that the appetite for risk is returning and that investors are prepared to own some small-cap stocks again. Meanwhile, this may be the right time to seek out undervalued stocks that have solid assets and reasonable growth prospects.
Investors may want to examine a number of individual smaller gold mining prospects that have begun to exploit reserves. Observers are starting to identify gold plays that, at current bullion prices, provide plenty of reason for optimism. Gold mining operations with solid resources and low cost of extraction can generate solid profit and create shareholder value when the commodity is trading in the area of USD$1200 to $1300 per ounce.
http://www.midasletter.com/2016/02/sptsx-venture-composite-index-gold-is-the-breath-of-life/
When it comes to investing, averages can be moderately helpful. Averages are a widely-used metric that provide general information and illuminate big-picture trends. However, averages can mask a number of important realities. In any investment portfolio that, “on average”, is in decline there are almost always stocks that are gaining.
The current rebound of the Venture exchange offers an opportunity to do two things simultaneously. First, it may be possible to ride the general wave of upward movement. Second, by scrutiny, it may be possible to find stocks that will rise more rapidly than the averages.
An experienced miner knows that it is often necessary to dig beneath the surface to find gold. Similarly, investors who make the effort to dig beneath the surface may discover hidden gems or uncover golden opportunities.
Argex Titanium to Present at the 2014 Gateway Conference
MONTREAL, QC–(Marketwired – Aug 19, 2014) – Argex Titanium, Inc. (TSX: RGX), an emerging producer of high-grade titanium dioxide (TiO2) used as white pigment in paint, plastic, paper, cosmetics and other applications, has been invited to present at the 2014 Gateway Conference being held on Thursday, September 4, 2014 at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco.
Argex management is scheduled to present at 11:30 a.m. Pacific Time, with one-on-one meetings held throughout the day. Management will discuss the company’s recent transition from R&D to the initial stages of commercial production of its disruptive TiO2 manufacturing process. The presentation will also be webcast live and available for replay at www.gateway-conference.com, under the Webcast tab.
Argex management will also participate in a 10-minute video interview recorded at the conference. The interview will be hosted by popular syndicated radio personality and former investment banker, Conn Jackson. It will be posted to Gateway Conference website and the Investors section of Argex’s website shortly after the conference.
For additional information or to schedule a one-on-one meeting, log-in via the link provided in your invitation. You may also email your request to schedule@gateway-conference.com or call Chris Tyson at (949) 574-3860.
About the Gateway Conference
The Gateway Conference is designed to provide a unique gateway between influential members of the investment community and a select group of compelling publicly-traded companies. Portfolio managers, research analysts and brokers from buy-side and sell-side institutions will have the opportunity to learn about more than 60 small-cap growth companies from a number of growth industries, including technology, business services, digital media, clean-tech, consumer, Internet retail and life sciences. For more information, visit www.gateway-conference.com.
The invitation-only conference is hosted by Liolios Group, one of the nation’s top investor relations agencies, and sponsored by leading firms that service the financial community. For more information about Liolios Group, visit www.liolios.com.
About Liolios Group
Liolios Group, Inc. is a highly selective and comprehensive investor relations firm specializing in small-cap companies. The firm aims to deliver superior performance in corporate messaging and positioning, investor awareness, analyst and financial press coverage, and capital attraction. Founded in 1999, Liolios Group executives have extensive experience in finance and investments, and represent clients in a wide range of industries, including technology, digital media, consumer/internet retail, healthcare/life sciences, natural resources and business services. For more information about Liolios Group, please visit www.liolios.com.
About Argex Titanium
Argex Titanium Inc. has developed an advanced chemical process for the volume production of high grade titanium dioxide (TiO2) for use in high quality paint, plastics, cosmetics and other applications. The company’s unique proprietary process takes relatively inexpensive and plentiful source material from a variety of potential vendors, and produces TiO2 along with other valuable by-products. Argex’s process provides a significant cost and environmental advantage over current legacy TiO2 production methods. The company’s primary near term goal is to rapidly advance toward a 50,000 tonne per annum production module as a first step in its goal to transform the 5.2 million tonne per annum TiO2 industry.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains statements that may constitute “forward-looking information” or “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking information and statements may include, among others, statements regarding future plans, costs, objectives or performance of Argex, or the assumptions underlying any of the foregoing. In this news release, words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will”, “likely”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “estimate” and similar words and the negative form thereof are used to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether, or the times at or by which, such future performance will be achieved. No assurance can be given that any events anticipated by the forward-looking information will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits Argex will derive. Forward-looking statements and information are based on information available at the time and/or management’s good-faith belief with respect to future events and are subject to known or unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other unpredictable factors, many of which are beyond Argex’s control. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include, but are not limited to, those described under “Risk Factors” in Argex’s Annual Information Form for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com; they could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. Argex does not intend, nor does Argex undertake any obligation, to update or revise any forward-looking information or statements contained in this news release to reflect subsequent information, events or circumstances or otherwise, except if required by applicable laws.
Neither the TSX nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Contact: Company:
Argex Titanium, Inc.
Roy Bonnell, President and Chief Executive Officer
514 843-5959
- Published in Mining
TSX Composite is up 200 points as Bank of Canada cuts Interest Rates
By Josh Falle
Anybody wondering why the S&P/TSX Composite Index just jumped 200 points?
Bank of Canada, in a move last night cut interest rates. A sharp drop in oil prices has forced the Bank of Canada to cut its target overnight rate by 0.25{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}, bringing interest rates to new historic lows of 0.75{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}. The BoC added its bank rate is at 1.00{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} and its deposit rate is 0.50{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}.
Many analysts predicted for them to hold current rates, but as 2015 revs up, it is proving to be a new kind of monster.
“The large decline in oil prices will weigh significantly on the Canadian economy,” the Bank of Canada said in its quarterly monetary policy report, which it also released Wednesday.
- Published in Blog
Organigram Provides Shareholder Update
OrganiGram Holdings Inc. (ACB:CSE) has provided an update to shareholders while reviewing milestones of 2014 and looking at the growth and goals of 2015.
Since the inception of OrganiGram in April, 2014, the company has been growing and developing at a very fast pace. Through this growth, there have been some tremendous achievements, which include receiving its organic certification, producing its first crops, listing of shares on the TSX Venture Exchange and completing three phases of construction. OrganiGram is excited to capitalize on these achievements and execute on the business plan.
Moving forward, the company’s shareholders, patients and partners will begin to see the results from the foundation laid in 2014. To date, the company has been extremely focused on expanding the production facility while, at the same time, working to increase production levels. These efforts will begin to provide significant product to the market in March of this year. Thereafter, the utilization of the company’s existing rooms and rooms under construction will ensure that OrganiGram is poised to meet its financial goals in 2015.
OrganiGram would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Trauma Healing Centers on the opening of its first clinic, in Halifax, N.S. OrganiGram is proud to be partnered with Trauma Healing Centers on research initiatives to assist veterans and others suffering with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
OrganiGram’s chief executive officer, Denis Arsenault, states: “Over the past few months, OrganiGram has moved into a best-in-class manufacturing facility. Our processes and systems have been developed to a point where we produce high-quality products, in an organic form, which has and will continue to exceed the requirements of our clients. While we continue to evolve and improve, our facility will begin to supply the market with an established source of product on a consistent basis. We have a superior management team in place that is not only focused on supply but also quality, efficiency and product development. The results of our efforts will not only be very profitable for the company and shareholders but most importantly will provide a rapidly increasing client base with a medicinal product that assists in a much-improved quality of life for many. The developments of the next few weeks and months will be both exciting and fruitful for our company.”
We seek Safe Harbor.
- Published in Blog
TickerTrax Insights: V.SBM 12 cents: Skin whitening, anti-aging and diabetes
In 2015 I am hunting for promising opportunities outside of resource exploration that will provide diversification with strong capital gain potential. Sirona Biochem Corp. (TSX: V.SBM, Stock Forum) has a lot in the pipeline that could have a big impact on share price in 2015. But this type of stock is very difficult to buy on good news. Case in point – July 31, 2014 Sirona announced successful synthesis of an anti-inflammatory compound for their Bloom Burton joint venture. At the time I would have viewed this as good news but not “great” news. The stock over the next three days gained 50{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} on 20 million shares of buying! It came back over time because of this lousy market but it shows how quickly these biotech micro cap stocks can move. When you are finished reading my report I think you will recognize the same potential I see for multiple avenues of high impact news over the next year or two. In particular are licensing deals with big pharmaceutical or cosmetic companies. These can not only produce initial payments worth several hundred million dollars, but ongoing royalties worth even more. These are the type of licensing agreements we will be speculating on (hoping for) with Sirona. The current market cap is only $15 million so there is plenty of room for growth. I tried to shorten my report length from fourteen pages but there is too much relevant information that needs to be properly digested. It is a detailed report but it will help you understand the risk/reward opportunity. Source Full Report
- Published in Blog
What Cheap Oil Really Means
Written by Frehiwote Negash
When Oil prices crossed the $100 per barrel threshold in 2008, there was a prevailing thought that this might be considered the new normal. Oil prices have crossed that benchmark numerous times in the last 6 years hitting $115 as early as June (Isadore, 2014). Since then, oil prices have dropped over 50 {92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} in the last 7 months; a staggering drop for a popular commodity. With Saudi Arabia’s Petroleum Minister announcing that Opec will not cut oil production regardless of the price per barrel, the days of $100 per barrel of oil are officially over (Defterios, 2014).
Countries like Canada and Russia are net energy exporters with oil being their largest export. While sanctions might have limited Russia’s economic prospects, the fall of oil prices has done more to damage their economy as evidenced by the free fall of the ruble last week. Yesterday, the Canadian dollar hovered near its 5 year low today hitting .85 against the American dollar (Nguyen, 2014). While the performance of the American dollar is boosted by its strengthened economy, the fall of the loonie can be attributed to fluctuating price of commodities, oil being the trigger point. Other oil producing countries such as Norway also suffered as the krone also hit a 5 year low upon the Opec announcement (Nguyen, 2014). This serves to further complicate things for non- Opec countries as the surplus of oil on the market will force them to slow production substantially and cancel future project in order to stay competitive.
As oil prices drop, Canadian consumers are delighted at the prospect of paying a little over a $1.10/l at the pumps during the holiday season. While it is clear that consumers benefit directly from lower oil prices, the same cannot be said for investors, governments and their respective economies. The recent fall in oil prices has had a massive impact on world markets. It has triggered panic selling forcing governments to act swiftly and adjust to the new reality. The price of oil is a major indicator for government projections. It helps governments determine how they plan and execute annual budgets. It can determine foreign policy and the outcomes of elections. In the short term, consumers see more money in their pocketbooks. However, with the free fall in oil prices and a weaker loonie there will be by-products of this crisis that affect all Canadians by way of government policy. Consumers have to remember that the loonie is a commodity currency so as the oil goes, the loonie goes.
For Canadians heading south for the holidays, that means less bang for your buck. For Albertans, lower oil prices means less in the public coffers as Premier Jim Prentice announced yesterday that Alberta will be $7 billion short of their estimated windfall (Curry, 2014).if you live in Southern Ontario, the hope is that the lower dollar will help boost the flagging manufacturing sector. The price of oil has created ripple effects in the Canadian economy but a sustained period will cause a tidal wave that affects every Canadian.
Works Cited
Curry, Bill. “Dropping loonie, sliding oil price redraw provinces’ economic pictures” Last accessed December 24, 2014. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/federal-budget-revisions-shake-up-provincial-finances/article22184872/
Defterios, John .”Saudi Arabia: We’ll never cut oil production.̎Last accessed December 23, 2014. http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/22/news/economy/saudi-arabia-oil-production/index.html?iid=EL
Isadore, Chris. The end of $100 a barrel oil. Last accessed December 23, 2014, http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/23/news/economy/saudi-oil-minister-100-dollar-oil/
Nguyen, Lannah. ”Loonie near 5-year low as U.S. economy surges”. Last accessed December 23, 2014. http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/12/23/Loonie-near-5-year-low-as-US-economy-surges.asp
- Published in Blog, Oil and Gas
122 Things Everyone Should Know About Investing And The Economy
Written by Morgan Housel, The Motley Fool
A year ago I started writing what I hoped would be a book called 500 Things you Need to know About Investing. I wanted to outline my favorite quotes, stats, and lessons about investing.
I failed. I quickly realized the idea was long on ambition, short on planning.
But I made it to 122, and figured it would be better in article form. Here it is.
1. Saying “I’ll be greedy when others are fearful” is easier than actually doing it.
2. When most people say they want to be a millionaire, what they really mean is “I want to spend $1 million,” which is literally the opposite of being a millionaire.
3. “Some stuff happened” should replace 99{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of references to “it’s a perfect storm.”
4. Daniel Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slow begins, “The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than your own.” This should be every market commentator’s motto.
5. Blogger Jesse Livermore writes, “My main life lesson from investing: self-interest is the most powerful force on earth, and can get people to embrace and defend almost anything.”
6. As Erik Falkenstein says: “In expert tennis, 80{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of the points are won, while in amateur tennis, 80{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} are lost. The same is true for wrestling, chess, and investing: Beginners should focus on avoiding mistakes, experts on making great moves.”
7. There is a difference between, “He predicted the crash of 2008,” and “He predicted crashes, one of which happened to occur in 2008.” It’s important to know the difference when praising investors.
8. Investor Dean Williams once wrote, “Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.”
9. Wealth is relative. As comedian Chris Rock said, “If Bill Gates woke up with Oprah’s money he’d jump out the window.”
10. Only 7{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of Americans know stocks rose 32{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} last year, according to Gallup. One-third believe the market either fell or stayed the same. Everyone is aware when markets fall; bull markets can go unnoticed.
11. Dean Williams once noted that “Expertise is great, but it has a bad side effect: It tends to create the inability to accept new ideas.” Some of the world’s best investors have no formal backgrounds in finance — which helps them tremendously.
12. The Financial Times wrote, “In 2008 the three most admired personalities in sport were probably Tiger Woods, Lance Armstrong and Oscar Pistorius.” The same falls from grace happen in investing. Chose your role models carefully.
13. Investor Ralph Wagoner once explained how markets work, recalled by Bill Bernstein: “He likens the market to an excitable dog on a very long leash in New York City, darting randomly in every direction. The dog’s owner is walking from Columbus Circle, through Central Park, to the Metropolitan Museum. At any one moment, there is no predicting which way the pooch will lurch. But in the long run, you know he’s heading northeast at an average speed of three miles per hour. What is astonishing is that almost all of the market players, big and small, seem to have their eye on the dog, and not the owner.”
14. Investor Nick Murray once said, “Timing the market is a fool’s game, whereas time in the market is your greatest natural advantage.” Remember this the next time you’re compelled to cash out.
15. Bill Seidman once said, “You never know what the American public is going to do, but you know that they will do it all at once.” Change is as rapid as it is unpredictable.
16. Napoleon’s definition of a military genius was, “the man who can do the average thing when all those around him are going crazy.” Same goes in investing.
17. Blogger Jesse Livermore writes,”Most people, whether bull or bear, when they are right, are right for the wrong reason, in my opinion.”
18. Investors anchor to the idea that a fair price for a stock must be more than they paid for it. It’s one of the most common, and dangerous, biases that exists. “People do not get what they want or what they expect from the markets; they get what they deserve,” writes Bill Bonner.
19. Jason Zweig writes, “The advice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous in the long run.”
20. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio once said, “The more you think you know, the more closed-minded you’ll be.” Repeat this line to yourself the next time you’re certain of something.
21. During recessions, elections, and Federal Reserve policy meetings, people become unshakably certain about things they know very little about.
22. “Buy and hold only works if you do both when markets crash. It’s much easier to both buy and hold when markets are rising,” says Ben Carlson.
23. Several studies have shown that people prefer a pundit who is confident to one who is accurate. Pundits are happy to oblige.
24. According to J.P. Morgan, 40{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of stocks have suffered “catastrophic losses” since 1980, meaning they fell at least 70{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} and never recovered.
25. John Reed once wrote, “When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles — generally three to twelve of them — that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles.” Keep that in mind when getting frustrated over complicated financial formulas.
26. James Grant says, “Successful investing is about having people agree with you … later.”
27. Scott Adams writes, “A person with a flexible schedule and average resources will be happier than a rich person who has everything except a flexible schedule. Step one in your search for happiness is to continually work toward having control of your schedule.”
28. According to Vanguard, 72{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of mutual funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 underperformed the index over a 20-year period ending in 2010. The phrase “professional investor” is a loose one.
29. “If your investment horizon is long enough and your position sizing is appropriate, you simply don’t argue with idiocy, you bet against it,” writes Bruce Chadwick.
30. The phrase “double-dip recession” was mentioned 10.8 million times in 2010 and 2011, according to Google. It never came. There were virtually no mentions of “financial collapse” in 2006 and 2007. It did come. A similar story can be told virtually every year.
31. According to Bloomberg, the 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that Wall Street rated the lowest at the end of 2011 outperformed the overall index by 7 percentage points over the following year.
32. “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the sitting,” said Jesse Livermore.
33. Investors want to believe in someone. Forecasters want to earn a living. One of those groups is going to be disappointed. I think you know which.
34. In a poll of 1,000 American adults, asked, “How many millions are in a trillion?” 79{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} gave an incorrect answer or didn’t know. Keep this in mind when debating large financial problems.
35. As last year’s Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett said he has owned 400 to 500 stocks during his career, and made most of his money on 10 of them. This is common: a large portion of investing success often comes from a tiny proportion of investments.
36. Wall Street consistently expects earnings to beat expectations. It also loves oxymorons.
37. The S&P 500 gained 27{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} in 2009 — a phenomenal year. Yet 66{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of investors thought it fell that year, according to a survey by Franklin Templeton. Perception and reality can be miles apart.
38. As Nate Silver writes, “When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.” The biggest risk is always something that no one is talking about, thinking about, or preparing for. That’s what makes it risky.
39. The next recession is never like the last one.
40. Since 1871, the market has spent 40{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of all years either rising or falling more than 20{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}. Roaring booms and crushing busts are perfectly normal.
41. As the saying goes, “Save a little bit of money each month, and at the end of the year you’ll be surprised at how little you still have.”
42. John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “It is safer to be a speculator than an investor in the sense that a speculator is one who runs risks of which he is aware and an investor is one who runs risks of which he is unaware.”
43. “History doesn’t crawl; it leaps,” writes Nassim Taleb. Events that change the world — presidential assassinations, terrorist attacks, medical breakthroughs, bankruptcies — can happen overnight.
44. Our memories of financial history seem to extend about a decade back. “Time heals all wounds,” the saying goes. It also erases many important lessons.
45. You are under no obligation to read or watch financial news. If you do, you are under no obligation to take any of it seriously.
46. The most boring companies — toothpaste, food, bolts — can make some of the best long-term investments. The most innovative, some of the worst.
47. In a 2011 Gallup poll, 34{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of Americans said gold was the best long-term investment, while 17{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} said stocks. Since then, stocks are up 87{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}, gold is down 35{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}.
48. According to economist Burton Malkiel, 57 equity mutual funds underperformed the S&P 500 from 1970 to 2012. The shocking part of that statistic is that 57 funds could stay in business for four decades while posting poor returns. Hope often triumphs over reality.
49. Most economic news that we think is important doesn’t matter in the long run. Derek Thompson of The Atlantic once wrote, “I’ve written hundreds of articles about the economy in the last two years. But I think I can reduce those thousands of words to one sentence. Things got better, slowly.”
50. A broad index of U.S. stocks increased 2,000-fold between 1928 and 2013, but lost at least 20{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of its value 20 times during that period. People would be less scared of volatility if they knew how common it was.
51. The “evidence is unequivocal,” Daniel Kahneman writes, “there’s a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.”
52. There is a strong correlation between knowledge and humility. The best investors realize how little they know.
53. Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do in the short run.
54. Most people would be better off if they stopped obsessing about Congress, the Federal Reserve, and the president, and focused on their own financial mismanagement.
55. In hindsight, everyone saw the financial crisis coming. In reality, it was a fringe view before mid-2007. The next crisis will be the same (they all work like that).
56. There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. Through consolidation and failure, three emerged on top, two of which went bankrupt. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things.
57. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (University of California, Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).
58. Maggie Mahar once wrote that “men resist randomness, markets resist prophecy.” Those six words explain most people’s bad experiences in the stock market.
59. “We’re all just guessing, but some of us have fancier math,” writes Josh Brown.
60. When you think you have a great idea, go out of your way to talk with someone who disagrees with it. At worst, you continue to disagree with them. More often, you’ll gain valuable perspective. Fight confirmation bias like the plague.
61. In 1923, nine of the most successful U.S. businessmen met in Chicago. Josh Brown writes:
Within 25 years, all of these great men had met a horrific end to their careers or their lives:
The president of the largest steel company, Charles Schwab, died a bankrupt man; the president of the largest utility company, Samuel Insull, died penniless; the president of the largest gas company, Howard Hobson, suffered a mental breakdown, ending up in an insane asylum; the president of the New York Stock Exchange, Richard Whitney, had just been released from prison; the bank president, Leon Fraser, had taken his own life; the wheat speculator, Arthur Cutten, died penniless; the head of the world’s greatest monopoly, Ivar Krueger the ‘match king’ also had taken his life; and the member of President Harding’s cabinet, Albert Fall, had just been given a pardon from prison so that he could die at home.
62. Try to learn as many investing mistakes as possible vicariously through others. Other people have made every mistake in the book. You can learn more from studying the investing failures than the investing greats.
63. Bill Bonner says there are two ways to think about what money buys. There’s the standard of living, which can be measured in dollars, and there’s the quality of your life, which can’t be measured at all.
64. If you’re going to try to predict the future — whether it’s where the market is heading, or what the economy is going to do, or whether you’ll be promoted — think in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Death and taxes, as they say, are the only exceptions to this rule.
65. Focus on not getting beat by the market before you think about trying to beat it.
66. Polls show Americans for the last 25 years have said the economy is in a state of decline. Pessimism in the face of advancement is the norm.
67. Finance would be better if it was taught by the psychology and history departments at universities.
68. According to economist Tim Duy, “As long as people have babies, capital depreciates, technology evolves, and tastes and preferences change, there is a powerful underlying impetus for growth that is almost certain to reveal itself in any reasonably well-managed economy.”
69. Study successful investors, and you’ll notice a common denominator: they are masters of psychology. They can’t control the market, but they have complete control over the gray matter between their ears.
70. In finance textbooks, “risk” is defined as short-term volatility. In the real world, risk is earning low returns, which is often caused by trying to avoid short-term volatility.
71. Remember what Nassim Taleb says about randomness in markets: “If you roll dice, you know that the odds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So you can calculate the risk. But, in the stock market, such computations are bull — you don’t even know how many sides the dice have!”
72. The S&P 500 gained 27{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} in 1998. But just five stocks — Dell, Lucent, Microsoft, Pfizer, and Wal-Mart — accounted for more than half the gain. There can be huge concentration even in a diverse portfolio.
73. The odds that at least one well-known company is insolvent and hiding behind fraudulent accounting are pretty high.
74. The book Where Are the Customers’ Yachts? was written in 1940, and most people still haven’t figured out that brokers don’t have their best interest at heart.
75. Cognitive psychologists have a theory called “backfiring.” When presented with information that goes against your viewpoints, you not only reject challengers, but double down on your view. Voters often view the candidate they support more favorably after the candidate is attacked by the other party. In investing, shareholders of companies facing heavy criticism often become die-hard supporters for reasons totally unrelated to the company’s performance.
76. “In the financial world, good ideas become bad ideas through a competitive process of ‘can you top this?'” Jim Grant once said. A smart investment leveraged up with debt becomes a bad investment very quickly.
77. Remember what Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says: “You have never lost money in stocks over any 20-year period, but you have wiped out half your portfolio in bonds [after inflation]. So which is the riskier asset?”
78. Warren Buffett’s best returns were achieved when markets were much less competitive. It’s doubtful anyone will ever match his 50-year record.
79. Twenty-five hedge fund managers took home $21.2 billion in 2013 for delivering an average performance of 9.1{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}, versus the 32.4{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} you could have made in an index fund. It’s a great business to work in — not so much to invest in.
80. The United States is the only major economy in which the working-age population is growing at a reasonable rate. This might be the most important economic variable of the next half-century.
81. Most investors have no idea how they actually perform. Markus Glaser and Martin Weber of the University of Mannheim asked investors how they thought they did in the market, and then looked at their brokerage statements. “The correlation between self ratings and actual performance is not distinguishable from zero,” they concluded.
82. Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says that “virtually everything I taught” in economics was called into question by the financial crisis.
83. Asked about the economy’s performance after the financial crisis, Charlie Munger said, “If you’re not confused, I don’t think you understand.”
84. There is virtually no correlation between what the economy is doing and stock market returns. According to Vanguard, rainfall is actually a better predictor of future stock returns than GDP growth. (Both explain slightly more than nothing.)
85. You can control your portfolio allocation, your own education, who you listen to, what you read, what evidence you pay attention to, and how you respond to certain events. You cannot control what the Fed does, laws Congress sets, the next jobs report, or whether a company will beat earnings estimates. Focus on the former; try to ignore the latter.
86. Companies that focus on their stock price will eventually lose their customers. Companies that focus on their customers will eventually boost their stock price. This is simple, but forgotten by countless managers.
87. Investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort looked at analysts’ predictions of interest rates, and compared that with what interest rates actually did in hindsight. It found an almost perfect lag. “Analysts are terribly good at telling us what has just happened but of little use in telling us what is going to happen in the future,” the bank wrote. It’s common to confuse the rearview mirror for the windshield.
88. Success is a lousy teacher,” Bill Gates once said. “It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.”
89. Investor Seth Klarman says, “Macro worries are like sports talk radio. Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.”
90. Several academic studies have shown that those who trade the most earn the lowest returns. Remember Pascal’s wisdom: “All man’s miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone.”
91. The best company in the world run by the smartest management can be a terrible investment if purchased at the wrong price.
92. There will be seven to 10 recessions over the next 50 years. Don’t act surprised when they come.
93. No investment points are awarded for difficulty or complexity. Simple strategies can lead to outstanding returns.
94. The president has much less influence over the economy than people think.
95. However much money you think you’ll need for retirement, double it. Now you’re closer to reality.
96. For many, a house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.
97. The single best three-year period to own stocks was during the Great Depression. Not far behind was the three-year period starting in 2009, when the economy struggled in utter ruin. The biggest returns begin when most people think the biggest losses are inevitable.
98. Remember what Buffett says about progress: “First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots.”
99. And what Mark Twain says about truth: “A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes.”
100. And what Marty Whitman says about information: “Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.”
101. Among Americans aged 18 to 64, the average number of doctor visits decreased from 4.8 in 2001 to 3.9 in 2010. This is partly because of the weak economy, and partly because of the growing cost of medicine, but it has an important takeaway: You can never extrapolate behavior — even for something as vital as seeing a doctor — indefinitely. Behaviors change.
102. Since last July, elderly Chinese can sue their children who don’t visit often enough, according to Bloomberg. Dealing with an aging population calls for drastic measures.
103. Someone once asked Warren Buffett how to become a better investor. He pointed to a stack of annual reports. “Read 500 pages like this every day,” he said. “That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.”
104. If Americans had as many babies from 2007 to 2014 as they did from 2000 to 2007, there would be 2.3 million more kids today. That will affect the economy for decades to come.
105. The Congressional Budget Office’s 2003 prediction of federal debt in the year 2013 was off by $10 trillion. Forecasting is hard. But we still line up for it.
106. According to The Wall Street Journal, in 2010, “for every 1{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} decrease in shareholder return, the average CEO was paid 0.02{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} more.”
107. Since 1994, stock market returns are flat if the three days before the Federal Reserve announces interest rate policy are removed, according to a study by the Federal Reserve.
108. In 1989, the CEOs of the seven largest U.S. banks earned an average of 100 times what a typical household made. By 2007, more than 500 times. By 2008, several of those banks no longer existed.
109. Two things make an economy grow: population growth and productivity growth. Everything else is a function of one of those two drivers.
110. The single most important investment question you need to ask yourself is, “How long am I investing for?” How you answer it can change your perspective on everything.
111. “Do nothing” are the two most powerful — and underused — words in investing. The urge to act has transferred an inconceivable amount of wealth from investors to brokers.
112. Apple increased more than 6,000{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} from 2002 to 2012, but declined on 48{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of all trading days. It is never a straight path up.
113. It’s easy to mistake luck for success. J. Paul Getty said, the key to success is: 1) rise early, 2) work hard, 3) strike oil.
114. Dan Gardner writes, “No one can foresee the consequences of trivia and accident, and for that reason alone, the future will forever be filled with surprises.”
115. I once asked Daniel Kahneman about a key to making better decisions. “You should talk to people who disagree with you and you should talk to people who are not in the same emotional situation you are,” he said. Try this before making your next investment decision.
116. No one on the Forbes 400 list of richest Americans can be described as a “perma-bear.” A natural sense of optimism not only healthy, but vital.
117. Economist Alfred Cowles dug through forecasts a popular analyst who “had gained a reputation for successful forecasting” made in The Wall Street Journal in the early 1900s. Among 90 predictions made over a 30-year period, exactly 45 were right and 45 were wrong. This is more common than you think.
118. Since 1900, the S&P 500 has returned about 6.5{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} per year, but the average difference between any year’s highest close and lowest close is 23{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce}. Remember this the next time someone tries to explain why the market is up or down by a few percentage points. They are basically trying to explain why summer came after spring.
119. How long you stay invested for will likely be the single most important factor determining how well you do at investing.
120. A money manager’s amount of experience doesn’t tell you much. You can underperform the market for an entire career. Many have.
121. A hedge fund once described its edge by stating, “We don’t own one Apple share. Every hedge fund owns Apple.” This type of simple, contrarian thinking is worth its weight in gold in investing.
122. Take two investors. One is an MIT rocket scientist who aced his SATs and can recite pi out to 50 decimal places. He trades several times a week, tapping his intellect in an attempt to outsmart the market by jumping in and out when he’s determined it’s right. The other is a country bumpkin who didn’t attend college. He saves and invests every month in a low-cost index fund come hell or high water. He doesn’t care about beating the market. He just wants it to be his faithful companion. Who’s going to do better in the long run? I’d bet on the latter all day long. “Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with a 130 IQ,” Warren Buffett says. Successful investors know their limitations, keep cool, and act with discipline. You can’t measure that.
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- Published in Blog
Canada’s Newest Exchange – Aequitas NEO Exchange!
“We at Aequitas are on a mission to reverse the trends that currently trouble our markets, to restore confidence and to build a new exchange that puts the interests of investors and issuers first.”
-Jos Schmitt, President and Chief Executive Officer, Aequitas Innovations Inc.
On November 17th, The Ontario Trade Commission has recognized Canada’s newest exchange, the Aequitas Neo Exchange. It is expected to go online March 1, 2015. The last time this happened was the Canadian Securities Exchange in 2004. The ANE aims to limit high frequency trading with higher commissions as well as other bumps. Jos Schmitt, CEO of Aequitas Innovations, hopes to have 20{92d3d6fd85a76c012ea375328005e518e768e12ace6b1722b71965c2a02ea7ce} of the market in trade volume in the next 4-5 years, so its reasonable to expect some aggressive campaigns in the coming months for the exchange.
“We are thrilled to receive approval from the OSC to move forward and launch the Aequitas NEO Exchange,” Schmitt said.
“We appreciate the careful review undertaken by the OSC. We are now in a position to help promote confidence and build an exchange of the future using a bold new blueprint that puts investors, companies and their dealers first.”
Aequitas’ founding shareholders include Barclays Corp Ltd., a subsidiary of the well-known British bank; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.,telecommunications giant BCE; mutual fund companies CI Investments Inc. and IGM Financial (Investors Group); OMERS Capital Markets, the investment arm of the OMERS (the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System); and ITG Canada, a market maker.
- Published in Blog
Upcoming Montreal Event – IIROC’s “Tips for Traders Montreal”
MomentumPR strives to provide you the best tools to tackle Canadian small caps today. In this investing environment, staying ahead of the curve is the only way to increase your portfolio. Need to brush up the latest compliance issues? Come check out Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC)’s “Tips for Traders Montreal”! Attending will also provide you with 1.5 hours of IIROC Continuing Education Compliance Credits.
The event will cover a variety of subjects, mostly in English. Some topics include
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electronic Trading Rules
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Overview
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TCC Observations
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Third-Party Electronic Access
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Odd-Lot Order Rulings
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Single-Stock Circuit Breakers
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Marketplace Thresholds
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Debt Reporting Update
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Best Execution
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Identification of Trading Groups
Day? Thursday, November 13, 2014
Time? 4:30-6:00pm
Where? Centre Mont-Royal, “Cartier 1”, 3rd Floor, 2200, rue Mansfield, Montreal
Lakeland finishes sampling, mapping program at Star
LAKELAND RESOURCES INC. PROVIDES UPDATE ON 2014 EXPLORATION
Lakeland Resources Inc. is providing an update on recent and planned work at its 100-per-cent-owned Athabasca basin uranium properties.
Highlights
- Star uranium property: completion of follow-up mapping and prospecting at the Star uranium property. This work was completed in order to define the deposit model and the source of the gold, Platinum group element (PGE) and rare earth element (REE) mineralization observed during the fall of 2013;
- Lazy Edward Bay property: exploration permits have been received for the proposed summer work program and crews will begin mobilization to the property as soon as possible. The BAY trend will be the focus of exploration;
- Fond Du Lac property: exploration permits have been received for the proposed summer work program and crews will begin mobilization to the property as soon as possible. The Fond du Lac property is targeting a coincident geochemical and conductive target at the margin of the Athabasca basin.
Star uranium property
Crews from Dahrouge Geological Consulting Ltd. recently completed a six-day sampling and mapping campaign at the Star uranium property. A total of 73 rock samples and 124 soil samples were collected from in and around the uplifted basement block at the northeastern portion of the property, immediately north of the margin of the Athabasca basin. This work was completed in order to define the deposit model and the source of the gold, platinum group element and rare earth element results obtained in the fall of 2013. The 2013 sampling explored a small portion of the uplifted basement outcrop on the Star property. Anomalous concentrations of gold (up to 5.7 grams per tonne gold), platinum group elements (0.75 g/t PGE), rare earth elements (up to 6.9 per cent total rare earth oxides (TREO)) and highly anomalous uranium suggest the presence of a robust hydrothermal system.
Lazy Edward Bay property
Exploration permits have been received for the proposed summer work program, and mobilization to the property will begin as soon as possible. The BAY trend will be tested with a RadonEX survey. This and other targets will be prospected in order to locate boulders or other surface expressions of shallow unconformity-style uranium mineralization.
The BAY trend consists of two parallel conductive trends at the southern margin of the Athabasca basin. The BAY trend is highlighted by historic exploration of Uranerz in 1982, where drill hole LE-50 intersected the basement rocks about one kilometre south of the Athabasca sandstones. Moderately chloritized, sericitized and weakly hematized migmatitic, graphitic pelite returned an assay value of 770 parts per million uranium along with anomalous boron, nickel, pathfinder metals (Sask AR: 74G07-0042).
Fond Du Lac property
Exploration permits have been received for the proposed summer work program, and crews will begin mobilization to the property as soon as possible. The Fond du Lac property is targeting a coincident geochemical and conductive target at the margin of the Athabasca basin.
National Instrument 43-101 disclosure
The technical information above has been prepared in accordance with the Canadian regulatory requirements set out in National Instrument 43-101 and reviewed on behalf of the company by Neil McCallum, PGeo, of Dahrouge Geological Consulting Ltd., a qualified person.
- Published in Mining