A Canadian’s Guide to the 2016 US Presidential Elections
– Momentum Public Relations –
When you think of the upcoming US presidential elections, what’s the first name that comes to mind? If you said Donald Trump, you’re not alone. Since June of last year, Trump has managed to create a seemingly endless stream of media attention for his presidential campaign. Although very few people took Trump seriously when he floated the idea of running for president in 1988, 2004 and 2012, he managed to position himself as an actual candidate in the latest United States election.
While Trump has received more attention than any other candidate, his airtime hasn’t translated into actual political traction. He had quite a bit of wind knocked out of his sails when he came in second at the Iowa caucus. And even though that preliminary voting event gets talked about a lot, it’s by no means a true indicator of who’s going to end up becoming the next President of the United States.
Who’s Most Likely to Become the Next US President?
If you want to know who’s most likely to become the next US President, you have to cut through a lot of noise and focus solely on the numbers. Fortunately, there’s a great source that specializes in that work. FiveThirtyEight is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Its founder, Nate Silver, and his team correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states in the 2012 US presidential election. They did the same in 2008 with the exception of a single state.
The basic way the US presidential system works is after the initial period of numerous candidates throwing their hat in the ring, having a few debates and going through some primary votes, both the Republican and Democratic parties give an official endorsement to one candidate. Those candidates are who voters will ultimately pick between to become the next President of the United States.
For the Republicans, FiveThirtyEight has Marco Rubio pegged as the endorsement frontrunner with 60 points. Rubio recently overtook Jeb Bush for that position, who is currently at 51. Chris Christie is next at 26, followed by John Kasich at 20 and then Ted Cruz at 19. Trump is projected as having secured 0 endorsement points for himself. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is the presumed candidate with 466 points, while Bernie Sanders only has 2 points.
What Does the Election Mean for the Economy?
Even though it’s not the type of topic that is going to bring lots of clicks to a mainstream media website, one of the most important elements for determining the outcome of an election is the economy. Multiple studies about US Presidential elections have shown that the economy is a bigger factor than how much money a candidate raises or how charismatic they’re viewed to be by the public.
So with that in mind, it’s interesting to note that leading economic forecasters believe that when the elections arrive on November 8th of this year, the unemployment rate in the US will be at its lowest point since the 2000 election. Combined with other positive economic indicators, most experts agree that the general consensus among voters will be that of a feel-good attitude.
In terms of what that means for the candidates, these types of conditions are generally favorable to the incumbent party as its candidate is able to promise continued prosperity. But before we jump to any conclusions and name Hillary Clinton as the next president, it’s important to remember the 2000 election. Even though Al Gore was running during a similar economic climate and actually won the popular vote, the workings of the Electoral College meant that he did not become President of the United States.